🧪 AXTI $2.8M Short Put Credit Before Q1 Earnings Tonight — Premium Collector Goes Bullish-to-Neutral on InP Wafer King

📅 April 30, 2026 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

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🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just collected $2.8 MILLION in cash selling puts on AXTI this afternoon — not buying them, SELLING them — betting this InP semiconductor wafer company stays above $82 through May 15. With AXT, Inc. (NASDAQ: AXTI) reporting Q1 2026 earnings tonight after the close, a sophisticated institutional player chose to PUT on a premium-collection trade right before the binary event, essentially selling a cash-secured floor in a stock up +290% in three months. That's not a scared trade — that's confidence with a 2,800,000 reasons behind it.

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📊 Company Overview

AXT, Inc. (NASDAQ: AXTI) is a Fremont, California-based semiconductor materials company that sits at the very heart of the AI infrastructure buildout:

• Market Cap: ~$3.8–$4.4B (post-April 2026 offering)
• Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
• Current Price: ~$78–$79 (April 30, 2026 intraday; 52-week range: $1.23–$90.10)
• Primary Business: Indium phosphide (InP), gallium arsenide (GaAs), and germanium (Ge) substrate wafers — the physical raw material that makes silicon photonics transceivers and AI optical interconnects possible
• 3-Month Performance: +290%+ — one of the best-performing semiconductor stocks in the US in 2026
• Key Fact: AXT manufactures through its Beijing-based subsidiary Tongmei, making it both a critical supply-chain link AND a geopolitical headline risk

According to Semiconductor-Today, AXT ranks among the top-five InP substrate suppliers globally — a group that controls roughly 70% of global InP wafer revenue. With a ~70% global InP supply/demand gap reported by TrendForce, this is one of the few real supply squeezes in the AI stack right now.

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (April 30, 2026):

Combined: 3,100 contracts sold, $2.8M CREDIT collected.

🤓 What This Actually Means

This is a premium-collection strategy — the trader SOLD these puts, meaning they:

• 💵 Received $2.8M cash upfront (not paid — COLLECTED) the moment these trades executed
• 🎯 Obligation taken on: Must buy 310,000 shares of AXTI at $82 if the stock closes below $82 on May 15 — but they WANT to, because they're bullish
• ⏰ 15-day window: Expiry is May 15, 2026 — capturing tonight's Q1 earnings and any post-earnings follow-through
• 📊 Strike is ABOVE the current price: AXTI is trading ~$77–$79, making the $82 puts slightly in-the-money at the time of the trade — these are ITM short puts, indicating high conviction

Average premium per leg:

• Leg 1: $1.6M / 1,100 contracts = ~$14.55 per share ($1,455 per contract)
• Leg 2: $1.2M / 2,000 contracts = ~$6.00 per share ($600 per contract)
• Blended average: ~$9.03 per share across 3,100 contracts

What's really happening here: Selling ITM puts before earnings is an assertive premium-collection bet. The trader is saying: "I'll buy AXTI at $82 or keep the premium — either way I win, as long as the stock doesn't crater." With tonight's Q1 2026 earnings as the binary catalyst, they're putting $2.8M in guaranteed credit on the table and betting the report doesn't destroy the stock below their ~$67–$72 breakeven zone. This is NOT a scared hedge — it's a structured income play by someone who has done their homework on the fundamental story.

Unusual Score: 🔥 HIGH — AXTI is a mid-cap with historically thin options liquidity. Back-to-back block puts selling 3,100 contracts totaling $2.8M in premium inside two minutes is far above typical daily activity for this name. When a market participant deploys this kind of capital in a single expiry right before earnings, they have a specific view, not a casual interest.

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

AXTI has been on one of the most violent runs in the semiconductor universe — +290%+ in three months and roughly +900% over the past 12 months, per StockScan. The stock started 2025 in the low single digits and made an all-time high of $90.10 on April 22, 2026 — the same day as its $632.5M equity offering pricing.

Key chart observations:

• 🚀 Parabolic acceleration: The March 2026 InP capacity-doubling announcement and the April 2026 $632.5M capital raise created back-to-back vertical moves
• 📈 Post-offering consolidation: Stock pulled back from the $90 ATH to the $77–$79 range — a healthy digestion of dilution, not a breakdown
• ⚠️ Vertical moves mean vertical risk: A stock up 900% in 12 months can correct 30–40% and still be in a structural uptrend — do not confuse momentum with a safety net
• 📊 Volume pattern: Volume surged on key catalyst dates (March 2, 2026 and April 22, 2026); options activity has expanded materially with new strike series listed up to $95 weeklies — signaling that institutions are actively using options

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: ~$79.55

The gamma exposure map shows where market makers are concentrated and where mechanical buying/selling kicks in automatically:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):

• $76 — Immediate support, total GEX 0.13B. First meaningful floor below current price (~4.5% away)
• $75 — Secondary support with 1.05B total GEX (strongest nearby put-gamma floor — dealers will bid aggressively here on any dip)
• $72 — Mid-level support at 0.19B total GEX (~9.5% below price)
• $70 — Major structural floor with 2.31B total GEX (~12% below price — the LINE IN THE SAND for a post-earnings flush scenario)
• $65 — Extended support zone at 1.21B total GEX — this is where the market expects the worst-case washout to find a floor

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):

• $80 — Immediate ceiling with 1.14B total GEX (only 0.6% overhead — a very tight lid on upside near-term)
• $84 — Secondary resistance at 0.54B total GEX (~5.6% above current price)
• $85 — Third resistance zone at 0.26B total GEX
• $90 — Major ceiling at 0.76B total GEX (~13.1% above current price — the prior ATH zone)
• $95 — Extended upside target at 0.28B total GEX

What this means for the trade: The $80 resistance is the critical near-term pin. AXTI is trading just below it right now. A strong earnings beat tonight that breaks $80 would flip dealers from net sellers to neutral/buyers above that level — potentially powering a run toward $84–$85 and then $90. The $75 support is the bulls' first real defense if earnings disappoint; the $70 level (~2.31B GEX) is the institutional backstop where real mechanical buying should emerge in a sell-off.

Notice the strike relationship: The short puts are struck at $82 — sitting right between the $80 immediate resistance and the $84 secondary resistance zone. The trader positioned at exactly the level where they're comfortable being assigned shares if needed, knowing there's gamma-based dealer support nearby.

Net GEX Bias: Bullish (10.51B call GEX vs 3.70B put GEX) — overall dealer positioning is net long, supportive of the stock holding current levels. Market structure is on the bulls' side.

Implied Move Analysis

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations:

• 📅 Weekly (May 1 — 1 day away): ±$11.64 (±14.68%) → Range: $67.70 – $90.99
• 📅 Monthly OPEX (May 15 — 15 days — THIS TRADE!): ±$20.27 (±25.55%) → Range: $59.08 – $99.62

Translation for regular folks: The options market is pricing a ±14.7% move just for TOMORROW following tonight's earnings — that's an $11.64 swing on a ~$79 stock. By the May 15 expiry (when this short put trade expires), the market sees a potential range of $59 to $100 — a truly binary width.

This is a crucial data point for the short put seller. They collected $2.8M in credit knowing the market prices ~$20 of potential downside by May 15. The breakeven on their trade is approximately $82 minus the blended premium — but given the two legs came in at different premiums, the effective protection they have is the credit collected per contract. If we use the total: $2.8M / 310,000 shares = $9.03/share of downside protection, putting breakeven near **$72.97**. That sits right in the gamma-support zone between $72 and $75 — not coincidental.

Key insight: The trader is effectively selling the extreme implied volatility of earnings. With IV pricing a ±25.55% move by May 15, the put premium at $82 strike is fat — and if AXTI simply survives earnings without a catastrophic breakdown, that IV collapses post-earnings and the short put dramatically decreases in value, creating paper profit even if the stock pulls back modestly.

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🎪 Catalysts

🔥 Immediate Catalysts — Tonight!

Q1 2026 Earnings — TONIGHT, April 30, 2026 (After Market Close)

AXT has officially scheduled Q1 2026 earnings for tonight after close, with the conference call beginning at 1:30 PM PT at (833) 461-5787, passcode 619252830. Key metrics the market is watching:

• 📊 Revenue guidance: Company guided $26–28M; consensus sits at $26.22M — a sequential step-up from Q4 2025's $23M
• 💰 EPS: Consensus at -$0.04 to -$0.05 (still a net loss but dramatically improved from -$0.08 in Q4)
• 🔑 InP revenue trajectory: Q3 2025 InP revenue hit $13.1M (+250% sequentially) and backlogs surpassed $49M — tonight's print tells us if that momentum held or accelerated
• 🛂 US export permit progress: Q4 miss was a permits/timing issue, NOT demand. Any positive update on US InP permits would be a major positive surprise
• 📈 Q2 2026 guidance: First quarter fully incorporating the $632.5M raise — how aggressively does management guide for capacity ramp benefits?

Historical context: Q4 2025 EPS of -$0.08 missed consensus of -$0.06, and revenue of $23M came in at the low end of guidance due to delayed China export permits per Semiconductor-Today. Investors gave it a pass because Q3 2025 InP revenue surged 250% sequentially, proving demand is real. Tonight, they want to see that momentum continued.

🚀 Near-Term Catalysts (Next 6 Months)

$632.5M Capital Raise for InP Capacity Doubling (Already Executed)

AXT closed a $632.5M public offering in late April 2026 at $64.25/share, with underwriters exercising the overallotment in full — bringing total gross proceeds to $632.5M. The proceeds fund a plan to double InP manufacturing capacity by end of 2026. At Q3 2025 InP run rate of $13.1M per quarter ($52M annualized), doubling capacity at full utilization implies $100M+ InP revenue alone — versus $88.3M in total 2025 company revenue. That's the math the market is pricing.

China Gallium/Germanium Export Suspension — Active Through November 27, 2026

China's November 2025 suspension of the gallium/germanium export prohibition runs through November 27, 2026 per Fastmarkets. This cleared the biggest near-term overhang for AXT's GaAs and Ge product lines. However, the clock is ticking — a re-imposition would directly impact two of AXT's three core substrate businesses.

InP Supply/Demand Gap — Structural Tailwind

TrendForce reports a ~70% global InP supply/demand gap — 1.4M piece demand vs 600K production capacity in 2025. NVIDIA's Quantum-X/Spectrum-X silicon-photonics switches use 18 silicon-photonics engines per unit, all dependent on InP laser chips per TrendForce. AXT sits directly in the supply bottleneck for the hottest build-out in tech.

Tongmei STAR Market IPO — Wild Card

The Tongmei subsidiary IPO on Shanghai's STAR Market has been under CSRC review since August 2022 per AXT's 10-K SEC filing. Management continues to say "coming months" — it has slipped every deadline since 2022. If approved, it would be a valuation re-rating event since Tongmei produces 100% of AXT's wafer output. But do not underwrite this as a 2026 certainty.

⚠️ Risk Catalysts (Negative)

Analyst Price Targets Are Well Below Spot

Wedbush raised its price target from $8.50 to $28 and Northland raised to $35 — the consensus PT of ~$35.60 is materially BELOW the ~$78 spot price. Analysts are still catching up to the AI-photonics thesis rather than leading it. That means the stock is running ahead of fundamental coverage, which is both a sign of institutional conviction AND a warning that any bad print faces an air pocket with no analyst support underneath.

Competition: 6-Inch InP Fab Broke Ground in March 2026

TrendForce reported the world's first 6-inch InP photonic-chip industrial wafer fab broke ground in March 2026. AXT dominates in 4-inch today — if the industry transitions to 6-inch before AXT's expansion completes, their competitive position could erode faster than the capacity doubling can offset it.

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, the implied move data, and tonight's binary earnings catalyst:

📈 Bull Case (35% probability)

Target: $88–$100

How we get there:

• 💪 Q1 revenue comes in at or above the $27–28M high end of guidance — sequential step-up from Q4's $23M confirms InP permit delays are cleared
• 🛂 Management announces US InP export permit progress or approval — this was the single biggest Q4 miss driver
• 📊 Q1 InP revenue stays near or exceeds Q3 2025's $13.1M benchmark — confirms backlog is converting
• 🚀 Q2 2026 guidance issued above consensus, with capacity-ramp commentary giving a revenue bridge to $100M+ run rate
• 📈 Stock breaks above $80 gamma resistance on volume, dealers flip to net buyers, squeeze toward $84–$85 and then toward prior ATH at $90.10
• 🎯 The implied move upper range for May 15 is $99.62 — meaning options already price a path to par

Short put position in this scenario: Max profit. Premium fully retained ($2.8M collected). The $82 puts expire worthless because AXTI closes above $82 on May 15. Net: +$2.8M.

Why not higher probability: Stock is up 290% in 3 months. Good news is already well-priced at these levels. A "good" print that matches guidance might not move the needle on the upside.

🎯 Base Case (40% probability)

Target: $72–$82 (consolidation range)

Most likely scenario:

• ✅ Q1 revenue prints in-line at $26–27M — fine, but not a blowout; stock exhales after the binary event
• 📊 InP backlog remains robust but US permits still delayed — story intact, but not the catalyst for a new leg higher
• ⚖️ Q2 2026 guidance issued in-line; management stresses capacity ramp is on track but requires patience
• 🔄 Post-earnings IV crush drags put values down sharply even without a big stock move
• 💤 Stock consolidates between $75 gamma support and $80 gamma resistance — digesting the 290% run

Short put position in this scenario: Partial to near-full profit. With IV collapsing post-earnings, the $82 puts lose most of their value even if AXTI stays at $77–$79. The theta burn accelerates and the position likely closes at 60–80% of max profit within days. If AXTI closes above $82 on May 15, still full profit.

Why 40% probability: This is the most likely scenario for a stock in a fundamental uptrend with a clear binary event — post-earnings IV crush is the dominant dynamic.

📉 Bear Case (25% probability)

Target: $59–$70 (test the gamma floors)

What could go wrong:

• 😰 Q1 revenue misses guidance range — comes in at $24–25M, repeating the Q4 permit-delay story one more time
• 🚨 No progress on US InP permits — investors lose patience with the narrative after three consecutive quarters of citing the same bottleneck
• 💸 Q2 2026 guidance disappoints — capacity-ramp costs compressing margins without revenue to offset; net loss widens
• ⚠️ Any negative China trade policy development — gallium/germanium suspension getting pulled early would hit GaAs/Ge lines immediately
• 📉 Breakdown below $75 gamma support triggers a move toward $70 (2.31B GEX floor) and potentially $65
• 🎢 The implied move LOWER range for May 15 is $59.08 — the options market explicitly prices this scenario as real

Short put position in this scenario: Losses mount. The $82 put with ~$9 blended credit means breakeven is near ~$73. Below $73, losses compound dollar-for-dollar. At $65, the combined loss on the 3,100 contracts would be approximately $82 - $65 - $9.03 = ~$7.97/share × 310,000 shares = ~$2.47M loss net of premium collected.

Critical support floors:

• 🛡️ $75: Strongest nearby put-gamma support (1.05B GEX) — must hold or momentum turns negative
• 🛡️ $70: Major gamma wall at 2.31B GEX — the institutional backstop in a flush
• 🛡️ $65: Extended gamma support at 1.21B GEX — near the implied-move lower bound

Why 25%: The fundamentals (InP backlog $49M+, $632M war chest, structural supply gap) make a total thesis collapse unlikely. But one more permit-delay disappointment could trigger 15–20% downside from current levels — and with a $82 short put, that matters.

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Watch Tonight and Play the IV Crush Tomorrow

Play: Do nothing tonight. Let the earnings binary resolve, then sell puts on AXTI after earnings once IV collapses.

Why this works:

• ⏰ Tonight's implied move is ±$11.64 (±14.7%) — fighting that with new positions before earnings is a coin flip with expensive premiums
• 💸 Post-earnings IV crush typically reduces option prices by 40–60% even without a dramatic stock move
• 🎯 If AXTI holds above $75 after earnings, selling the May 15 $70 put the morning after earnings could capture $3–5 of premium at a strike well below the gamma support levels
• 📊 Selling puts AFTER the IV crush means you're getting paid for actual ongoing risk, not peak binary-event panic pricing
• 🛡️ Maximum risk is defined: you're obligated to buy AXTI near strong gamma support at $70 — a level the options market itself sees as a significant floor

Estimated P&L (illustrative):

• Sell May 15 $70 puts post-earnings at ~$3–5 premium
• Max profit: $300–$500 per contract (premium kept if AXTI > $70 at May 15)
• Breakeven: $65–$67 — below the implied lower range for May 15
• Max loss: ~$65–$67/contract if AXTI goes to zero (theoretical)

Action plan:

• 👀 Watch Q1 2026 earnings tonight (April 30 AMC)
• 🎯 If stock opens above $75 tomorrow morning, evaluate put-selling at the $70 strike for May 15
• ❌ If stock gaps below $70 on earnings, do not sell puts — wait for the dust to settle

Risk level: Moderate (cash-secured put obligation) | Skill level: Intermediate — requires margin or cash reserves to cover assignment

⚖️ Balanced: Sell a Bull Put Spread Ahead of May 15

Play: Define your risk by selling a put spread on AXTI — collect premium while capping your maximum loss.

Structure: Sell the May 15 $77 put / Buy the May 15 $70 put (for example)

Why this works:

• ⚖️ You collect credit (perhaps $2–3 per spread post-earnings) while capping your loss at $7 wide minus the credit — defined risk, no margin call surprise
• 📊 The $70 long put sits right on the 2.31B GEX gamma support floor — the market's own structural backstop
• 🎯 Breakeven near $74–$75 — right where the strongest nearby put-gamma support exists (1.05B GEX at $75)
• 💸 Even if AXTI pulls back to $75–$77 after earnings, the spread may still expire profitable
• 🔄 Can be entered post-earnings once IV crush reduces the spread cost and risk

Estimated P&L (illustrative — adjust after seeing post-earnings IV):

• Collect ~$2.00–$3.00 net credit per spread
• Max profit: $200–$300 per spread (if AXTI closes above $77 on May 15)
• Max loss: $400–$500 per spread (if AXTI closes below $70 on May 15)
• Breakeven: ~$74–$75 — coincides with key gamma support
• Risk/Reward: ~1:1.5 to 1:2 in your favor for a defined-risk trade

Entry timing:

• ⏰ Execute within the first 1–2 sessions after earnings once IV settles
• 🎯 Size conservatively — 2–5% of account max on a single binary-event follow-on trade
• ❌ If AXTI gaps below $70 at the open tomorrow, avoid — reassess at the gamma floor

Risk level: Moderate (defined max loss) | Skill level: Intermediate options trader comfortable with multi-leg spreads

🚀 Aggressive: Ride the Earnings Pop with Short-Dated Calls (ADVANCED ONLY)

Play: If tonight's earnings are strong, buy AXTI calls targeting the $84–$90 gamma resistance zone.

Structure: Buy May 15 $82–$84 calls the morning AFTER earnings (same expiry as the short-put trade)

Why this could work:

• 💥 A strong Q1 print with US permit progress could break AXTI above the $80 gamma resistance — at that point, dealers flip from net sellers to net buyers, potentially accelerating a move to $84–$85 and the prior ATH zone at $90
• 📊 The May 15 implied-move upper range is $99.62 — the options market is already pricing a realistic path to $100 from the $79 base
• 🚀 The global InP supply gap of ~70% is real, documented, and structural — a good earnings print re-ignites that thesis and draws in momentum buyers
• ⚡ Short-dated calls are cheap post-IV-crush (counter-intuitively, you buy calls AFTER earnings because IV falls, making them cheaper even if the stock pops)

Why this could blow up (SERIOUS RISKS):

• 💸 Earnings could miss: If revenue comes in below $26M or Q2 guidance disappoints, calls go to zero overnight
• 😱 IV crush hits calls too: Even on an in-line print, post-earnings IV drop reduces call values
• ⏰ 15 days is short: With only 15 days to May 15 OPEX, theta burns $100–300/contract per day depending on strike
• ⚠️ AXTI is up 290% in 3 months — in a weak market, "good but not great" prints trigger profit-taking, not a melt-up
• 🎢 Never enter this trade before earnings — wait for the print and the morning reaction

Estimated P&L (illustrative):

• Buy May 15 $82 calls post-earnings at ~$4–6 (if stock opens at $82–$84)
• Profit scenario: AXTI rallies to $88–$90 → calls worth $6–8 → 30–100% gain
• Home run: AXTI breaks $90 → calls worth $8–10+ → 100%+ gain
• Loss scenario: AXTI stalls at $80 after earnings → calls lose 50–70% of value to theta
• Total loss: AXTI pulls back below $80 → can lose 80–100% of premium

CRITICAL WARNINGS:

• ✅ Only attempt if you've traded short-dated calls through earnings before and understand IV crush mechanics
• ✅ Cap the position at 1–2% of account — this is speculative, not a core position
• ✅ Set a stop: if AXTI fails to hold $80 the morning after earnings, exit immediately
• ✅ This is directional speculation, not a copy of the institutional short-put trade

Risk level: EXTREME — complete loss of premium is a real scenario | Skill level: Advanced only

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Do not let the $2.8M credit trade lull you into false confidence:

• 🎰 Tonight's earnings is a genuine binary event: The options market prices ±14.7% just for tomorrow. That is a $11.64 swing on a $79 stock. AXTI has shown it can move 20–30% on single-day catalysts. Neither direction is off the table.

• 📈 +290% in 3 months creates asymmetric downside: A stock up 290% in 3 months needs a very high beat-and-raise to move higher. Any miss — or even an in-line print without forward excitement — could trigger 20–30% mean-reversion selling from latecomers unwinding positions.

• 🛂 US export permits remain unresolved: AXT's 10-K confirms US InP export permits are still pending, with permits in hand only for EU, Japan, UK, and Canada customers. Another quarter citing the same bottleneck would severely test investor patience.

• 🏭 $632.5M raise added 21% dilution at the ATH: April 2026's public offering was priced at $64.25/share — a 19% discount to the current ~$79. Investors who bought the deal at $64.25 have a 23% gain with zero waiting and may use any earnings pop to distribute.

• 💸 Company remains unprofitable with a 444-day cash conversion cycle: Per StockScan analysis, AXT sits with 403 days of inventory and deep operating losses. Full-year 2025 revenue declined 11.1% YoY to $88.3M. The $632M raise buys time, but does not immediately fix the earnings model.

• 🇨🇳 China concentration and geopolitical tail risk: ~62% of AXT's revenue comes from China, with 100% of wafer production at Tongmei in Beijing. The China gallium/germanium export suspension expires November 27, 2026 — any re-imposition would hit GaAs and Ge product lines directly.

• 🏗️ Competitive landscape is moving: The world's first 6-inch InP photonic-chip industrial wafer fab broke ground in March 2026 — AXT dominates 4-inch. If the industry transitions to 6-inch before AXT's capacity doubling completes, their tech positioning could erode.

• 📉 Tongmei IPO overhang: The STAR Market IPO has been "imminent" since 2022. Every missed deadline is a credibility hit. The April 2026 US raise reduces urgency — which may actually slow the CSRC process further.

• 🐋 The short put seller is taking real risk: This trade collects $2.8M but obligates the buyer to acquire 310,000 shares of AXTI at $82 if the stock closes below $82 on May 15 — at current prices, that means potentially being 5–6% ITM on day one. If AXTI crashes 25–30% on a bad earnings print, the loss on this position would be ~$4–7M net of premium collected.

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone walked into the market at 12:25 PM on earnings day, sold 3,100 put contracts at $82 strike, and walked away with $2.8 million in their pocket. That's a confidence trade, not a fear trade. They're betting AXT's InP story — the $49M+ backlog, the $632M war chest, the 70% global supply gap — holds up after tonight's Q1 print.

What this trade tells us:

• 🎯 The seller sees more risk in missing a profitable income opportunity than in being assigned AXTI stock at $82 — that's inherently bullish-to-neutral
• 💰 With the blended breakeven near ~$72–$73, they have $6–7 of cushion below the $75–$76 immediate gamma support — structurally well-positioned
• ⚖️ The two-leg structure (1,100 contracts, then 2,000 contracts two minutes later) suggests either a single large institution scaling in or two coordinated accounts expressing the same view
• 📊 Selling ITM puts at the $82 strike when the stock is $77–$79 is NOT a casual decision — it implies a specific view that AXTI either bounces through $82 on earnings OR they are very comfortable owning shares at that level

If you own AXTI:

• ✅ Tonight's earnings is the moment of truth — hold through if you believe the InP supply thesis, but set a mental stop if revenue misses the $26M floor
• 📊 Watch for three things: (1) InP revenue vs. Q3 2025's $13.1M benchmark; (2) US export permit update; (3) Q2 guidance relative to consensus
• ⏰ If stock breaks $75 gamma support post-earnings, do not be a hero — the gamma structure below $75 gets thinner and a move to $70 becomes realistic

If you're watching from the sidelines:

• ⏰ Tonight after close is the moment of truth — do NOT enter new positions before the print
• 🎯 Post-earnings put-selling at the $70–$75 strike zone is the lower-risk version of what this institution just did — wait for IV to collapse, then sell into it
• 📈 A clean beat with US permit progress puts the $84–$90 range in play for May 15 — that's where the second and third gamma resistance levels sit
• ⚠️ Consensus PT of ~$35.60 is materially below $79 spot — institutional analysts have not fully underwritten this rally. That means you're pricing the AI-photonics bull thesis entirely on your own conviction.

If you're bearish:

• 🎯 The $75 gamma support is where the bull-bear debate happens — a clean break below that level on earnings day opens a path to $70 (2.31B GEX support) and potentially $65
• 📉 Bear case breakeven on the short puts is ~$73, so even bears get partial cover — but the May 15 implied lower bound of $59.08 is the real downside marker if the thesis breaks
• ⏰ Do not fight this stock pre-earnings — timing is everything; wait for the print

Mark your calendar — Key dates:

• 📅 Tonight, April 30, 2026 (AMC) — Q1 2026 earnings release (THE catalyst)
• 📅 April 30, 2026 at 1:30 PM PT — Conference call (passcode 619252830)
• 📅 May 1, 2026 — Weekly OPEX (±14.7% implied move window closes)
• 📅 May 15, 2026 — Monthly OPEX, expiration of this $2.8M short put trade
• 📅 Late July / Early August 2026 — Q2 2026 earnings (first full quarter of post-offering commentary)
• 📅 November 27, 2026 — China gallium/germanium export suspension sunset date

Final verdict: AXTI's fundamental thesis — InP supply squeeze, AI-photonics demand surge, $632M capacity-doubling warchest — is as compelling as any name in semiconductors right now. The $2.8M short put credit collected today says at least one institutional player sees more value in selling fear than buying it. But a stock up 290% in three months with consensus PT at $35 and earnings tonight deserves your full respect for the binary risk it carries.

Collect premium if you have conviction. Manage risk if you don't. And whatever you do — wait for the print tonight before touching this name with new capital.

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Short put positions carry significant downside risk if the underlying stock declines materially — the maximum loss on an uncovered short put is strike price minus premium received per share, multiplied by 100 shares per contract. Earnings events create binary outcome risk with potential for large gap moves in either direction. The institutional trades described represent the actions of a specific market participant whose full portfolio context, hedging relationships, and risk tolerance are unknown. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading options.

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About AXT, Inc.: AXT, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes high-performance compound semiconductor substrate wafers — primarily indium phosphide (InP), gallium arsenide (GaAs), and germanium (Ge) — through its majority-owned Beijing-based subsidiary Tongmei. The company is a top-five global supplier of InP substrates and sits at the material foundation of the AI silicon-photonics supply chain, with a market cap of approximately $3.8–$4.4 billion in the Semiconductor Materials & Equipment industry.