🤝 BSX $9.1M Contrarian Recovery Bet — Whale Builds 3-Leg Structure on Fallen Medical Giant

📅 May 28, 2026 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

✅ Last updated: 2026-05-29 — open/close confirmed by next-day OPRA OI (see OI UPDATE below).

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🎯 The Quick Take

A whale just committed ≈$9.1M net to a sophisticated 3-leg bullish structure on Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) — a stock that has been brutalized in 2026, falling ≈47% from its $109.50 high to ≈$49. This is not a momentum trade. It is a contrarian fallen-angel recovery bet: the trader is saying BSX's de-rating is overdone, the underlying franchises are still intact, and the back half of 2026 — anchored by Q2 earnings on July 29 and a rich pipeline of cardiology catalysts — can snap the stock back toward analyst fair value by December. Buckle up, because this is a high-risk, high-reward setup with very real two-sided risk.

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📊 Company Overview

Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) is one of the world's largest medical device companies, focused on cardiovascular, electrophysiology, and urology:

• Market Cap: ≈$74.9 billion (as of May 28, 2026)
• Industry: Surgical & Medical Instruments
• Current Price: ≈$49.40 (intraday May 28, 2026)
• Primary Products: WATCHMAN left-atrial-appendage-closure (LAAC) device for stroke prevention; Farapulse pulsed-field ablation (PFA) system for atrial fibrillation; coronary intravascular lithotripsy; urology devices (acquired Axonics)
• Why people cared in 2025: BSX was the U.S. market leader in PFA and the sole WATCHMAN franchise — two of medtech's fastest-growing secular markets. It traded above $100, priced for perfection.
• Why people are scared in 2026: Two guidance cuts in five weeks and the first-ever WATCHMAN volume decline broke the premium growth narrative — and with it, nearly half the stock's value.

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 The Tape (May 28, 2026 @ 11:07:26 ET — 3-leg block, all December 18 expiry)

Flow type: 🤝 BLOCK CROSS (multi-leg auction block) — This printed as a negotiated institutional block. One broker matched buyer and seller and crossed the package at agreed prices. There is a known counterparty on the other side. This is deliberate institutional positioning, not an urgent sweep of the open order book.

A quick note on size: An earlier 11:04 ET print on BSX was subsequently cancelled (OPRA cancel condition verified against the tape). The 11:07 block is the genuine, net-live trade — which is why we report these exact contract counts rather than the larger numbers that appeared briefly in flow scanners.

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⏳ Come back tomorrow for the OI double-check. Every leg traded far above its prior open interest (102,200 calls vs 239/91 OI; 20,440 puts vs 615 OI), so these are almost certainly fresh opens — but the definitive confirmation is the next-day OPRA open-interest snapshot at ≈06:30 ET on 2026-05-29. Expect OI on the $67.5 and $85 calls to jump ≈102,000 and the $40 put ≈20,000 if these opened as read. Check back pre-market tomorrow.

✅ OI UPDATE (2026-05-29): OPEN CONFIRMED. The next-day OPRA open-interest snapshot (reflecting 2026-05-28 EOD) confirms all three legs were genuine opening positions, not closes. The $67.5 call open interest rose from 239 to 107,404 (Δ +107,165), ≈ the 102,200-contract trade. The $85 call open interest rose from 91 to 106,723 (Δ +106,632), ≈ the 102,200-contract trade. The $40 put open interest rose from 615 to 43,266 (Δ +42,651), ≈ the 20,440-contract trade. The 3-leg bull-call-spread-plus-short-put structure read above holds.

🤓 What This Actually Means — In Plain English

Let's break down this 3-piece puzzle:

Piece 1 + Piece 2: The Bull Call Spread

The whale bought 102,200 of the $67.5 December calls for $1.69 each (≈$17.3M out the door) and simultaneously sold 102,200 of the $85 December calls for $0.40 each (≈$4.1M collected back).

Translation: they paid ≈$1.29 net per contract (the $1.69 cost minus the $0.40 credit) to bet that BSX climbs from ≈$49 today back toward ≈$85 by December 18. The $67.5 call is their "starter pistol" — it starts printing money the moment BSX clears $67.5. The $85 short call is their "ceiling" — it caps their profit there, because the whale sold away any upside above $85 in exchange for cheaper entry. Maximum spread value is $17.50 per contract (the $85 − $67.5 strike width) against a ≈$1.29 cost. That is roughly 13:1 potential leverage on a defined-risk bet — not reckless, just big.

Piece 3: The Short Put "Financing Floor"

The whale also sold 20,440 of the $40 December puts for $2.02 each, collecting ≈$4.1M. This does two things at once. First, it pulls the net cost of the whole package down from ≈$13.2M to ≈$9.1M — meaningful savings. Second, and more importantly, it is a statement: the whale is saying "I would be willing to own 2.044 million shares of BSX at $40 if the stock keeps falling." At $40, BSX would be trading at a roughly ≈$60B market cap, a valuation multiple where even the most skeptical analysts would start calling it deep value for a #1-share PFA and LAAC franchise.

Putting it all together:

This is a "fallen-angel recovery" bet. The whale is not chasing momentum — they are buying a broken stock after a credibility-damaging double guidance cut, betting that the damage to the business is less permanent than the market currently prices. The structure is elegant: defined risk on the upside bet (max loss = the $9.1M net debit if BSX finishes below $67.5 in December), capped profit in the recovery zone ($67.5–$85), and a willingness to get long stock at $40 as a "hard floor" commitment.

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📐 Structure Math — The Numbers That Matter

Real talk: The $67.5 long strike is ≈37% above today's price. That is not an "easy" move for a stock trading at fresh lows with management credibility on the line. The whale needs BSX to essentially repeat the inverse of its 2026 crash — and they are giving themselves 6+ months and two earnings reports to be right.

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

The chart says it all — BSX has been a slow-motion disaster in 2026. Starting the year near $93 and touching $109.50 in early months, the stock has shed nearly half its value by May 28. Two gap-downs stand out clearly: the first around the April 22 Q1 earnings call when management issued its first guidance cut, and the second on May 27 when CEO Mike Mahoney confirmed at the Bernstein conference that WATCHMAN U.S. revenue will be flat in both Q2 and Q3. The stock is sitting on — or very near — a fresh 52-week low. There is no technical support here built from bullish structure. This is falling-knife territory.

The whale is explicitly betting against the trend. That is high-conviction, but it is also high-risk.

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: ≈$49.40

The gamma exposure map reveals a heavily put-dominated landscape around current prices — classic of a name that has been crushed:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):

• $46 — Moderate put gamma concentration (4.36 total GEX). The nearest meaningful downside cushion. A break here opens the door toward $45.
• $45 — Secondary put gamma zone (1.65 total GEX, ≈8.9% below spot). Thin air below $46 means moves could accelerate.
• $40 — The whale's own short put strike! Very light gamma at this level (0.12 total GEX), which tells you something important: the options market is NOT positioned for a crash to $40. If BSX gets there, the whale is likely getting assigned stock.

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):

• $50 — This is the dominant nearby level and the biggest single gamma concentration in the entire chain: 12.26 total GEX, classified "Very Strong." BSX is fighting to reclaim $50 right now. Market makers have massive hedging obligations at this level — expect choppy, contested action as BSX tries to punch through. This is the first wall.
• $52 — Secondary call gamma (2.60 total GEX). A meaningful step-up if $50 gives way.
• $55 — Elevated gamma (6.24 total GEX). Another significant resistance cluster ≈11% above spot.
• $60 — Call gamma picks up again (3.58 total GEX). The road to $67.5 runs through all of these levels.
• $70 — Notable call gamma wall (3.44 total GEX). The first major gamma resistance in the spread's profit zone.

What this tells us:

BSX needs to climb through at least five distinct gamma resistance walls before it reaches the whale's $67.5 long call strike. The $50 level is the immediate battle — it is the strongest gamma wall in the entire chain and it sits less than 1.2% above the current print. Every attempt to rally will face mechanical selling pressure from market makers re-hedging at $50. Traders watching BSX intraday will feel this.

The overall gamma picture is skewed bearish (put-heavy below, persistent resistance above), which is consistent with the stock's beaten-down status. The bull case requires a sustained catalyst-driven rally — not a gamma-driven grind.

Implied Move Analysis

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations (based on ≈$49.57 spot):

• 📅 Weekly (May 29 — 1 day): ±$1.24 (±2.49%) → Range: $48.33 – $50.81
• 📅 Monthly OPEX (July 17 — 50 days): ±$7.01 (±14.14%) → Range: $42.56 – $56.58
• 📅 Quarterly Triple Witch (Sep 18 — 113 days): ±$11.63 (±23.47%) → Range: $37.94 – $61.20
• 📅 LEAP cone at December 18 (this trade!): The cone widens to roughly $65.25 upper / $33.89 lower by the year's December triple witch — a range of ≈$31 on either side. The market is pricing in massive uncertainty for this name.

Translation for regular folks:

The options market is saying: "We genuinely don't know where BSX ends up by December." The implied move cone by the September triple witch (≈$37.94–$61.20) still sits entirely below the whale's $67.5 long call strike. That means the current consensus of options pricing is that BSX stays range-bound or keeps sliding — and the whale is betting the consensus is wrong.

The $40 short put? The implied move lower bound by August OPEX (≈$39.63) and September triple witch ($37.94) is right in the neighborhood of the whale's put strike. The market is not pricing $40 as an impossibility — it is pricing it as a real tail scenario within the next few months. The whale collected $4.1M for accepting that risk.

This is genuinely two-sided.

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🎪 Catalysts

🔥 Critical Upcoming Catalysts

Q2 2026 Earnings — July 29, 2026 (THE most important date in this trade)

Benzinga's earnings calendar shows BSX reports Q2 results on July 29, 2026 with consensus for ≈$5.40B revenue and ≈$0.83 EPS. This is the single binary event that can either confirm the recovery thesis or break the $49 floor:

• ✅ If management holds the lowered 5%–7% Q2 organic growth guide and provides confident Q3 commentary — this is the "reset low enough" signal the market is waiting for. Expect a sharp snap-back toward $55–$65.
• ❌ If BSX misses the reset guide again — that's three cuts in a row. The credibility destruction would be severe. Short $40 put comes into focus as a real assignment risk.

Q3 2026 Earnings — ≈late October 2026 (the "trough quarter")

Management has pre-guided flat U.S. WATCHMAN revenue for Q3. A Q3 beat on this low bar — especially if standalone WATCHMAN volumes show any stabilization — would be a powerful sentiment inflection heading into December options expiry.

CHAMPION-AF First-Line WATCHMAN Data (ACC 2026 — presented)

MassDevice reports that the CHAMPION-AF trial met all primary and secondary endpoints at ACC 2026, supporting a first-line stroke-prevention label expansion for WATCHMAN. If FDA action follows in 2H 2026, the standalone WATCHMAN volume decline narrative gets materially disrupted.

Farapoint PFA Catheter Commercial Ramp

FDA approved the Farapoint in January 2026 for persistent AF — focal and linear lesions in a single catheter. Commercial ramp is ongoing. If cardiologist adoption accelerates through summer 2026, EP/Farapulse growth could reaccelerate, offsetting WATCHMAN headwinds.

ESC Congress (late August/early September 2026) and TCT (≈October 2026)

Two major cardiology conferences where further PFA and WATCHMAN data can shift narrative. Positive data from either can be near-term catalysts ahead of December OPEX.

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⚠️ Past Catalysts (Already Happened — the Damage Done)

April 22, 2026 — Q1 earnings and first guidance cut

Boston Scientific's Q1 2026 press release showed revenue of $5.20B (+11.6%) and EPS of $0.80 (a beat), but management simultaneously slashed FY26 guidance from 10.5%–11.5% organic growth to 6.5%–8.0%. The stock gapped down ≈9%. CEO Mahoney: "This was a guide down that we, quite frankly, are not proud of."

May 27, 2026 — Bernstein Conference and the second cut

One month later, BSX dropped another 10–12.5% after the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, where management confirmed flat U.S. WATCHMAN revenue in both Q2 and Q3, and lowered Q2 organic growth guidance to just 5%–7%. Daiwa downgraded to Neutral ($60 target), BofA cut its target from $105 to $68, and Raymond James downgraded from Strong Buy to Outperform at $88. Two cuts in five weeks is a credibility crisis.

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, implied move data, and catalyst timeline:

📈 Bull Case (25% probability) — Recovery to the $67.5–$85 Spread Zone

How we get there:

• 💪 July 29 earnings: BSX holds the reset guide, management tone improves, WATCHMAN declines stabilize
• 🔬 Farapoint/Farapulse continues +24% EP growth trajectory into H2
• 📋 CHAMPION-AF first-line WATCHMAN label expansion — FDA moves in H2 2026
• 📊 Wall Street consensus still ≈$93 average target (MarketBeat, Public.com) — a mean-reversion toward $75–$85 is +50%–+72% from here but well inside "fair value" by sell-side math
• ⚡ Gamma target chain: $50 → $52 → $55 → $60 → $65 → $67.5 (the spread starts printing)
• 🎯 Spread max value at $85+ (≈+72% from spot): potential ≈$178.8M on 102,200 spreads

Why only 25%: This requires executing a ≈37–72% recovery in 6 months off a post-credibility-crisis low with ongoing competitive headwinds. Not impossible — BSX did it before when it recovered from prior dips — but not the base case.

🎯 Base Case (50% probability) — Choppy Range-Bound, Spread Expires Worthless

Most likely scenario:

• 📊 BSX holds the ≈$45–$55 range through year-end, occasionally testing $50 resistance
• ✅ Q2 earnings are "in-line" with the lowered bar, but no clear re-acceleration story yet
• 📉 $67.5 calls expire out of the money; net debit of ≈$9.1M is the loss
• 🛡️ Short $40 put expires worthless (stock stays above $40) — that $4.1M premium is kept
• 🎲 The whale loses their $9.1M bet but does not get assigned stock

What the implied move data says: By December triple witch the options market prices an upper range of ≈$65.25 — BELOW the $67.5 long call strike. The consensus is that recovery, even in the bull case, likely stops short of the profit zone. That is the spread's embedded challenge.

📉 Bear Case (25% probability) — Third Guidance Miss, Short Put Comes Into Play

What could go wrong:

• 😰 July 29 earnings miss the already-lowered 5%–7% Q2 guide — third cut destroys remaining credibility
• 🔴 WATCHMAN volumes decline accelerate rather than stabilize (systemic reimbursement headwinds worsen)
• ⚔️ Medtronic Affera + J&J Varipulse + Abbott continue to erode Farapulse share faster than modeled
• 📉 $49 floor breaks on the third miss; stock tests the $40–$45 zone
• 🎰 Short $40 put: whale gets assigned ≈2.044 million shares at $40 (≈$81.8M obligation) + the entire $9.1M debit is already lost
• Total bear case cost: ≈$90.9M (debit + stock assignment at $40 vs sub-$40 market price)

Note: The implied move cone shows a lower bound of ≈$37.94 by September triple witch and ≈$33.89 by December triple witch. The market is telling you: a stock at $40 or below by December is a real (if tail) probability.

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💡 Trading Ideas for Different Risk Levels

🛡️ Conservative — "Wait-and-See Around Earnings"

Play: Do not trade BSX options now. Mark July 29 on your calendar and watch management's tone, WATCHMAN volume language, and Q3 guide.

Why this works:

• ⏰ Implied volatility is high; options are expensive on a beaten-down name with binary catalysts ahead
• 📊 The ≈14% implied move for July 17 OPEX (±$7.01) prices in a large move around Q2 earnings — you are paying for that uncertainty today
• 🎯 Wait for the July 29 print. If BSX holds the guide AND stock gaps up on relief — that is your confirmation signal for a targeted call position at the next OPEX
• 💤 If BSX misses again, you will get a chance to buy stock near $40–$45 at prices the whale thought were acceptable (you can effectively replicate the short put's logic by buying stock outright, without the options premium risk)

Action plan:

• 👀 Watch July 29 earnings call for three specific signals: (1) standalone WATCHMAN volume — any stabilization language; (2) Farapulse U.S. market share vs. Medtronic commentary; (3) tone on CHAMPION-AF first-line label expansion timeline
• ✅ A beat-and-hold of the 5%–7% Q2 guide is the green light

Risk level: Minimal | Skill level: Beginner-friendly

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⚖️ Balanced — "Small Bull Call Spread, Defined Risk"

Play: Replicate a much smaller version of the whale's bull call spread

Structure: Buy a few $67.5 December calls and sell an equal number of $85 December calls — same structure, retail-sized

Why this makes sense for the balanced trader:

• 🎯 Maximum risk is exactly what you pay (the ≈$1.29 net debit per spread, or ≈$129 per 1-contract spread)
• 📈 Maximum reward ≈$17.50 per spread if BSX hits $85 — ≈13:1 on a defined bet
• 📅 Two full earnings reports (Q2 July 29 + Q3 late October) before December expiry give the thesis multiple shots
• 💰 No short put obligation — you are not committing to buy 2.044M shares; this is purely defined risk

Estimated entry (current market, not a quote guarantee):

• $67.5 calls at ≈$1.69 and $85 calls at ≈$0.40 = ≈$1.29 net debit per spread
• 1-contract spread: ≈$129 risk for ≈$1,750 max profit

When to enter: Consider waiting for a small BSX bounce toward $50–$52 (first gamma wall) after July 29 earnings — that provides better confirmation the thesis has legs.

Risk level: Moderate | Skill level: Intermediate

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🚀 Aggressive — "Short $40 Put: Collect Premium, Commit to the Floor" (Advanced Only)

Play: Sell a single $40 December put — the same leg the whale is using to finance the spread

Why the aggressive trader considers this:

• 💰 The whale collected ≈$2.02 per contract — meaningful premium for a put that needs BSX to fall another ≈19% from already-beaten-down levels
• 🏛️ If $40 represents "willing to own BSX as a deep-value stock," this is the premium-collection version of that conviction
• 📊 Implied move data shows $40 at the edge of the probability distribution — not impossible, but a tail scenario

Why this is genuinely dangerous:

• ⚠️ You are accepting an obligation to buy 100 shares of BSX at $40 per contract sold. If the stock crashes to $30 on a third guidance miss, you are underwater immediately.
• 🔴 Short puts on high-beta, news-driven names after credibility damage are not "safe premium collection" — they are high-risk directional bets dressed in premium-collection clothing
• ❗ NEVER sell naked puts without understanding your margin requirement and maximum loss ($40 × 100 shares = $4,000 per contract, reduced by premium received)

CRITICAL WARNING: The whale has the resources to absorb a potential ≈$90M adverse outcome. Retail traders do not. Approach the short put strategy only if you have genuine conviction in BSX as a long-term holding at $40 AND have the capital to accept stock assignment.

Risk level: High | Skill level: Advanced — not for new options traders

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Real risks that could make this whale's bet painful:

• ❗ Credibility crisis is not over. CEO Mahoney has already said the Q1 guide-down was something he was "not proud of." A third cut on July 29 would likely break the $49 floor decisively. Trefis analysis titled "Don't Try To Catch The Falling Knife" published the same day as this trade captures the sentiment.

• ❗ WATCHMAN decline is structural, not just cyclical. Management cited three systemic factors: hospital capacity constraints, reimbursement changes, and Abbott's Amplatzer Amulet ending BSX's monopoly. These are not one-quarter noise. "Flat Q2 and Q3" could become "down Q4" if the dynamics worsen.

• ❗ PFA competitive pressure is accelerating. Medtronic Affera/Sphere-9, J&J Varipulse, and Abbott are all pushing PFA, eroding BSX's once-dominant Farapulse share faster than management modeled. Leerink cut its target to $74; Daiwa cut to $60 and downgraded to Neutral. The competitive landscape is genuinely more difficult today than six months ago.

• ❗ The $40 short put is NOT just "downside financing." If BSX falls to $35–$38 by December, the whale faces: (1) total loss on the $9.1M debit; (2) assignment of 2.044M shares at $40 against a market price of $35–$38; combined adverse scenario exceeds $90M. For retail traders replicating this, understand that the short put is the most dangerous leg of the structure.

• ❗ Gamma resistance at $50 is immediate. Before the trade makes a single dollar on the call spread, BSX needs to clear $50 (Very Strong gamma wall, 12.26 total GEX), $52, $55, $60, $65, and finally $67.5. That is six gamma hurdles in a row. Each one creates mechanical selling pressure.

• ❗ Time decay works against long options. With ≈203 days to December expiry, the $67.5 calls lose value every day BSX doesn't move. The theta clock is ticking.

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Here's the deal: Someone with real institutional resources looked at a $74.9B medical device company that just crashed ≈47% in five months, looked at the sell-side consensus price target of ≈$93, looked at the July 29 earnings date, and decided to construct a precisely engineered recovery bet costing ≈$9.1M net. They are not buying the momentum — they are buying the wreckage, betting the franchise (PFA #1, WATCHMAN #1) is worth more than the current price.

What this trade tells us:

• 🎯 This is a sophisticated institutional player, not a panic buyer — the 3-leg structure is deliberate, the strikes bracket exactly where multiple Wall Street analysts peg fair value ($67.5–$85)
• 🤝 The block cross structure means there is a known institutional counterparty on the other side who took the opposite view — someone else is SELLING this recovery thesis for ≈$9.1M net. Both sides have smart people on them.
• ⏰ The December expiry is a deliberate choice to straddle TWO full earnings reports (Q2 July 29 + Q3 late October) — the two events that can flip or confirm the "flat WATCHMAN" narrative
• 🐋 The $85 short call strike is not random — it sits exactly at Truist's reiterated Buy target of $85, signaling the whale considers that a credible but complete recovery level

The four-reader interpretation:

• 🎰 YOLO trader: The 102,200-contract size is extraordinary — this is one of the largest single medtech options structures in 2026. The leverage math ($9.1M for ≈$178M max profit) is eye-catching. But BSX needs to rally ≈37% just to break even on the spread. High risk.
• 📉 Swing trader: Watch July 29 earnings as the de facto proof point. A beat-and-hold of guidance = momentum entry toward $55–$60 gamma resistance levels. A miss = new lows, short $40 put at risk.
• 💵 Premium collector: The $40 short put trades at ≈$2.02 with BSX ≈19% above strike and 203 days to expiry — reasonable premium for a stock already at lows, but the underlying's news risk is extreme.
• 🌱 Entry-level options learner: This is a great example of how institutions use a bull call spread to define maximum risk on a speculative recovery bet, and how they finance that spread by selling puts at a level they'd "be happy to own the stock." The net debit ($9.1M) is the most you can lose on the spread legs — it's like a defined-risk insurance policy on BSX's recovery.

Mark your calendar:

• 📅 July 29, 2026 — Q2 earnings (THE moment of truth for this trade)
• 📅 Late October 2026 — Q3 earnings (trough quarter — flat WATCHMAN guided again)
• 📅 December 18, 2026 — Options expiry (final settlement)
• 📅 ESC Congress, late August/early September 2026 — PFA/WATCHMAN data that could move sentiment

Final verdict: This is a contrarian, high-conviction, defined-risk recovery bet by a sophisticated institutional player who sees BSX's franchise as worth more than the market currently prices. The structure is well-crafted and the strikes are anchored to where multiple Wall Street analysts still peg fair value. But it is explicitly a bet that management has "reset low enough" — a claim that will be tested directly on July 29. If you follow any part of this trade, do it small, do it defined-risk (the spread only, not the short put), and make July 29 your decision gate.

You're not fighting the market here — you're betting the market is wrong. That is a high bar.

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Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The trades described involve complex multi-leg option structures with significant leverage and potential for total loss of premium. The short put component carries additional risk including potential stock assignment obligations. Past unusual options activity does not guarantee future returns. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions and never risk capital you cannot afford to lose.

View BSX on AInvest | Last updated: May 28, 2026