🐂 NVDA $41M Deep-ITM Long Call Confirmed — Whale Opens a Leveraged Equity-Replacement Bet Into Aug 26 Q2 FY27 Earnings

Last updated: 2026-06-02 ✅ Resolved by next-day OI: the original "likely BTC" read inverted to BTO confirmed. See the OI UPDATE box below for the snapshot.

📅 June 1, 2026 | 🤝 Block Cross — BTO CONFIRMED

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✅ OI UPDATE — RESOLVED 2026-06-02

The next-day OPRA OI snapshot (≈06:30 ET 2026-06-02, reflecting EOD 6/1) shows the $190 strike's open interest rose by 9,356 contracts, ≈ the trade's 10,000-contract size — confirming this was a genuine fresh open (BTO), not a short-call cover. The earlier two-read framing has been resolved in favor of the bullish leveraged-equity-replacement thesis.

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🎯 The Quick Take

A whale just paid ≈$41 million to open a new long position in 10,000 deep-in-the-money NVDA $190 calls expiring September 18 — capturing the Aug 26 Q2 FY27 earnings binary with a ≈0.95-delta synthetic-stock substitute. At $33.87 intrinsic on a $223.87 spot, the desk bought leveraged exposure to ≈1,000,000 shares of NVIDIA for $41M instead of the ≈$224M it would cost to own the shares outright. This is a high-conviction, capital-efficient directional bet. Next-day OI confirmed it. The print is a 🤝 BLOCK CROSS — one broker crossed a buyer and seller at an agreed price — but the BTO direction is no longer in doubt.

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📊 Company Overview

NVIDIA Corporation is the world's dominant AI infrastructure company — the manufacturer of H100, H200, Blackwell, and (as of today) Vera Rubin GPUs that power virtually every major AI training and inference cluster on the planet.

• Market Cap: ≈$5.11 trillion — the world's most valuable public company as of June 1, 2026
• Industry: Semiconductors & Related Devices (AI Accelerators)
• Current Price: ≈$223.87
• The AI monopoly number: >90% of merchant AI training silicon, and effectively the entire CoWoS-L advanced-packaging line at TSMC through 2027

What happened this year that matters for this trade:

• 📊 Q1 FY27 (reported May 20, 2026): Revenue $81.6B (+85% YoY), EPS $1.87, Data Center $39.1B. Blackwell drove ≈70% of Data Center compute. Record print, yet the stock faded on "buy the rumor, sell the news" mechanics — setting up today's flow.
• 🚀 Right now (June 1, 2026): Jensen Huang's GTC Taipei keynote confirmed Vera Rubin in full production, with the first Vera Rubin rack already running at Microsoft Azure. This is a forward-looking catalyst the whale positioned ahead of, not behind.
• 🏭 TSMC CoWoS capacity is quadrupling from ≈35k to 130k wafers/month by end-2026, with NVIDIA holding ≈60% of total allocation locked for "several years ahead."
• 💾 SK Hynix holds ≈two-thirds of NVDA's 2026 HBM4 allocation for the Rubin platform. Mass production of 16-layer HBM4 started February 2026.
• 🌏 H200 China shipments resumed after the Trump administration cleared NVIDIA for vetted Chinese customers, unwinding part of the ≈$4.5B export-restriction hit from 2025.
• 💰 Hyperscaler 2026 capex: $600B–$690B (+36% YoY), ≈75% AI-directed. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle are all pulling forward infrastructure spend.

Analyst consensus: Strong Buy, 61 analysts averaging $296.81 PT with high-end $500. That's ≈33–38% upside vs. today's spot.

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💰 The Trade

The Tape — June 1, 2026 @ 14:55:08

Flow Type: 🤝 BLOCK CROSS (condition code 127 — single-leg negotiated cross, a known counterparty exists on the other side, NO aggressive lit-market sweep)

Strike anatomy at $43.30:

• 💵 Intrinsic value: $33.87 (the call is $33.87 in-the-money)
• ⏰ Time value: $9.43 (≈4.2% premium over intrinsic for 109 days of exposure through Sep 18 OPEX)
• Estimated delta: ≈0.95 (captures ≈95 cents of move per $1 move in NVDA — equity-replacement territory)

Order type: BTO — CONFIRMED. The next-day OPRA OI snapshot (2026-06-02) showed the $190 strike open interest rose +9,356 contracts, ≈ the 10,000-contract trade size. This was a genuine fresh open — a desk built a new long position.

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🤓 What This Actually Means — Plain English

A single institutional desk just bought leveraged exposure to approximately 1,000,000 shares of NVIDIA for ≈$41 million, instead of the ≈$224 million it would cost to buy those shares outright. That is a 5.5× capital multiplier — the desk gets nearly the same dollar-for-dollar upside as owning the stock, but commits only one-fifth of the capital.

Here is the mechanics of why this works:

At a ≈0.95 delta, the $190 deep-ITM call tracks NVDA almost dollar-for-dollar. If NVDA moves from $223.87 to $250, each call gains ≈$26 in value — nearly identical to holding the stock. The "cost" of this leverage is the $9.43 per contract in time value (≈4.2% over intrinsic for 109 days). For a fund that wants concentrated earnings-binary exposure without tying up a quarter-billion dollars in equity, this is textbook capital efficiency.

Why September 18? That expiry wraps around the most important pricing event in NVDA's near-term calendar: the August 26 Q2 FY27 earnings print (after close), which lands ≈23 days before expiration. The desk bought 109 days of high-delta exposure designed to capture that earnings catalyst. If NVDA blows out Q2 — say $92B+ revenue, guide-up for Q3, early Vera Rubin revenue recognized — the calls could be worth $60–$70+, a 40–60% gain on the $43.30 paid.

Why the $190 strike? Deep-ITM calls have three advantages for institutional buyers: (1) near-unity delta means maximum stock-like participation, (2) lower implied-vol sensitivity (less vega drag) than near-the-money calls, and (3) the $190 strike keeps the position in-the-money through essentially any base-case scenario short of a severe correction. Even if NVDA drops to $210, these calls retain $20 of intrinsic value. The desk is paying $9.43 to leverage $213M of equity exposure — a 4.2% carry cost for a full earnings cycle.

Why a block cross? A block cross (cond 127) means one broker matched a buyer and a seller and crossed the 10,000 contracts off the open order book at an agreed price. There is a known counterparty on the other side who sold (wrote) these calls. That counterparty either believes NVDA is unlikely to push meaningfully above $233.30 ($190 + $43.30 cost) by September, or they already own the underlying and are writing covered calls for income. Either way, the buyer — confirmed BTO by OI — is the bullish actor here.

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📈 Technical Setup — Charts and Key Levels

YTD Performance

NVDA has been on a remarkable recovery after the February–April volatility. The stock rallied hard off the lows following the Q1 FY27 beat on May 20 (initially faded on sell-the-news), and has since rebuilt into the $220s with today's GTC Taipei Vera Rubin production confirmation as a fresh catalyst. At ≈$224, the stock sits ≈$34 above the $190 strike — and squarely in the compression zone between the $220 support wall and $225 resistance wall per the gamma data.

Gamma S/R — Where the Market Is Pinned

The gamma exposure map from today's snapshot (spot ≈$223.66) reveals a very crowded near-term range:

🟠 Call Gamma Resistance (selling pressure as price rises):

• $225 — the most important near-term ceiling: 116.7 total GEX, net $91.6. Market makers hold massive call positions here and will systematically sell into any rally approaching this level. This is the wall NVDA needs to crack to accelerate higher.
• $230 — secondary resistance: 107.5 total GEX, net $90.2. A strong second layer after $225 breaks.
• $235 — next meaningful resistance: 39.6 total GEX.
• $240 — third-tier resistance: 55.8 total GEX, net $51.8. Also relevant as the options market's 3.5-month implied-move upper bound for this trade's expiry.

🔵 Put Gamma Support (buying pressure as price falls):

• $222.5 — nearest support, essentially at-spot: 31.3 total GEX. A thin but present floor.
• $220 — the strongest nearby support: 144.9 total GEX, net $103.8. This is the most important short-term floor for NVDA. A close below $220 would be a meaningful break.
• $217.5 — secondary support: 44.6 total GEX.
• $215 — deep support wall: 87.5 total GEX.
• $210 — major gamma floor: 69.9 total GEX. A meaningful correction would be needed to reach this level.
• $200 — the big floor: 86.8 total GEX with call and put GEX nearly balanced — this is where you'd expect serious buying support if NVDA were to sell off hard.

The gamma picture in plain English: NVDA is sandwiched. The $220 support wall is strong, the $225 resistance wall is equally strong — and both are within ≈1.5% of current price. This means market maker hedging flows are compressing price action right now. The next big move will require one of those walls to give way. Earnings catalysts (like Aug 26) or macro surprises are the kind of force that breaks gamma walls. Until then, expect the $220–$225 band to act as a gravitational center.

The $190 strike in the gamma picture: Note that $190 itself shows 28.8 total GEX (15% below spot). This is a support wall — not a ceiling — which is consistent with significant historical OI accumulation at that strike. Dealers are long gamma there, providing an auto-buying cushion if NVDA were to correct toward $190. The confirmed BTO whale is long at a strike that itself acts as a structural support level.

Implied Move — What the Options Market Prices In

The options market is currently pricing these movement ranges for NVDA:

What this means for the confirmed BTO:

The Sep 18 implied move upper bound is $277.51 — that is where the options market currently prices a 1-standard-deviation upside move. At $277.51, the $190 calls would be worth ≈$87.51, a 102% gain on the $43.30 paid. The bull case requires NVDA to stay above $233.30 (breakeven = $190 + $43.30) for this position to profit — and at $223.87 spot today, the stock is already ≈$34 above the strike and $9.43 away from the breakeven on time value alone.

The lower boundary ($169.77) is $19.77 below the $190 strike, reflecting the non-trivial downside the market prices for a 109-day window. The whale accepted that tail risk in exchange for 109 days of high-delta earnings exposure.

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🎪 Catalysts

🔥 Already in Motion (Happened Before This Trade)

Q1 FY27 Earnings — May 20, 2026 📊

NVIDIA reported a record quarter: $81.6B revenue (+85% YoY), EPS $1.87. Data Center hit $39.1B (+69% YoY), with Blackwell driving ≈70% of Data Center compute. Reaction was muted as the stock had already priced in a beat — but the underlying demand signals are as strong as ever. The whale is positioning for the next print to break the "sell the news" pattern.

GTC Taipei / COMPUTEX 2026 Keynote — June 1, 2026 🚀

Jensen Huang confirmed Vera Rubin in full production with the first rack running at Microsoft Azure. Full Rubin shipments target H2 2026 — squarely inside the Sep 18 expiry window. The desk opened this position ON the day of the Vera Rubin production confirmation, not in anticipation of it — this is a desk that had already digested the keynote and decided to buy the confirmed production ramp, not hope for it.

H200 China Resumption — May 2026 🌏

The Trump administration cleared NVIDIA to resume H200 shipments to vetted Chinese customers, reversing part of the ≈$4.5B inventory-write-down impact from 2025 export controls. Jensen Huang confirmed purchase orders received and H200 manufacturing restarted for the Chinese market.

TSMC CoWoS Capacity Lock 🏭

NVIDIA has ≈60% of TSMC's total CoWoS allocation booked for several years ahead. TSMC is quadrupling CoWoS capacity from ≈35k to 130k WPM by end-2026 with NVIDIA's build locked in.

HBM4 Supply Secured 💾

SK Hynix holds ≈two-thirds of NVDA's 2026 HBM4 allocation. Mass production of 16-layer HBM4 began February 2026 at SK Hynix's M16 Icheon and M15X Cheongju lines. Samsung unveiled HBM4E at GTC 2026 — the supply ecosystem is racing to catch up.

Hyperscaler Capex: $600B–$690B in 2026 💰

Hyperscaler 2026 AI capex is $600B–$690B (+36% YoY) vs. ≈$485B in 2025. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle are all in the $50B–$200B range individually, with 2027 budget previews expected at their July/August earnings — inside this Sep-18 expiry window.

📅 THE Binary — Q2 FY27 Earnings: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 (After Close)

This is the event that dominates everything else in the Sep-18 expiry window. The print lands ≈23 days before expiration — close enough to full gamma expansion territory. Per Wall Street Horizon, August 26 after close is confirmed.

What to watch at Aug 26:

• 📊 Q2 consensus is forming around $88B–$92B revenue (post-Q1 trajectory implies this range)
• 🌏 Explicit H200 China revenue contribution — first clean-quarter contribution after the resumption
• 🏭 Blackwell-Ultra mix vs. early Vera Rubin sell-through — how fast is the next platform ramping?
• 💰 Gross margin commentary as HBM4 supply tightens — the premium supplier (SK Hynix) holds pricing leverage
• 📈 Any hyperscaler 2027 capex forward signals from the August earnings cycle

For the confirmed BTO buyer: A strong Aug 26 print (say $92B+, guide-up for Q3, Vera Rubin first revenue recognized) sends NVDA into the $240–$260 range. At $250 by Sep 18, the $190 calls are worth ≈$60+, a ≈40% gain on the $43.30 paid. The earnings binary is the central thesis for why the desk opened this position on June 1 with 109 days of runway.

⚠️ Risk Catalysts

• HBM4 yield slip: If SK Hynix or Micron miss production yields, Vera Rubin revenue slips right — negative for the BTO position
• China policy whipsaw: One executive order can restore the export ban — the 2025 $4.5B write-down is the precedent; a reversal would hit the stock ±5% in hours
• "Buy the rumor, sell the news" on Aug 26: The May 20 pattern already showed this can happen even on record prints; valuation at ≈30× forward leaves thin margin for disappointment on guide; IV crush post-earnings could compress the position even if the stock moves in-line
• Hyperscaler debt strain: Morgan Stanley flags >$400B in hyperscaler borrowing in 2026 vs. $165B in 2025 — credit spread widening could throttle 2027 capex plans and hit NVDA's multiple
• AMD MI400 ramp and custom ASIC growth: Hyperscalers (Google TPU v6, Amazon Trainium3, Meta MTIA) are meaningfully investing in custom silicon, which chips away at the TAM that goes to merchant NVDA GPUs over multi-year horizons; this is a structural bear flag for the stock's long-term multiple, even if not an immediate threat inside 109 days

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🎲 Price Targets Through Sep 18 OPEX

Using gamma levels and the 109-day implied move range ($169.77 – $277.51):

📈 Bull Case — $240–$260 (30% probability)

How we get there:

• Aug 26 Q2 FY27 blowout: $92B+ revenue, strong guide-up for Q3, Vera Rubin first revenue recognized
• H200 China contribution exceeds expectations — first clean quarter adds ≈$2B+ incremental
• Hyperscaler 2027 budget previews (July/August earnings cycle) signal continued acceleration
• NVDA breaks the $225 gamma wall and then $230 — the gamma compression releases upward

For the BTO buyer: This is the full-thesis scenario. At $250 by Sep 18, the $190 calls are worth ≈$60+, nearly a 40% gain on the $43.30 paid. At $260, they are worth ≈$70 — a ≈62% gain. The 5.5× capital multiplier means the desk captured nearly $70M of NVDA upside with a $41M commitment.

🎯 Base Case — $215–$235 (50% probability)

Most likely path:

• Aug 26 prints in-line to slight beat ($88–$90B, steady guide), the classic "solid but not spectacular" quarter
• NVDA oscillates between the $220 gamma support and $230 gamma resistance as the market digests the Vera Rubin ramp
• The $225 wall contains the rally; the $220 floor contains the pullback
• IV crush after Aug 26 puts pressure on the time-value component of the position

For the BTO buyer: The position has modest gains from intrinsic appreciation if NVDA drifts to $230–$235, partially offset by time-value decay. The position is profitable if NVDA is above $233.30 (breakeven = strike + premium) at expiration. In the flat $220–$230 range, the position ends near breakeven, with the remaining time value at risk over the final 23 days post-earnings.

📉 Bear Case — $190–$210 (20% probability)

What breaks the thesis:

• Aug 26 disappoints on guidance — not the print but the forward look (e.g., Q3 guide of $88B vs. $94B consensus)
• HBM4 yield issues surface, Vera Rubin H2 ramp delayed
• China export controls reimposed by executive order before year-end
• Broader tech re-rate on macro / Fed surprise

Key support levels before $190:

• 🔵 $220 — Very Strong (GEX 144.9, strongest nearby floor) — first major battle
• 🔵 $215 — Very Strong (GEX 87.5) — second defense
• 🔵 $210 — Very Strong (GEX 69.9) — major gamma floor, critical support
• 🔵 $200 — Very Strong (GEX 86.8, balanced call/put) — deepest relevant floor
• 🔵 $190 — Support Wall (GEX 28.8) — the strike itself has positive net GEX, acts as a gravity attractor

For the BTO buyer: At $190 on Sep 18, the $190 calls expire ATM (effectively worthless, intrinsic $0). Total loss of $43.30 per contract = ≈$41.1M evaporated. This is the max-loss scenario. Deep-ITM long calls lose all time value on a drift-lower scenario — even a $30 correction over 109 days (to ≈$194) leaves only $4 of intrinsic value, an ≈$39 loss per contract. The downside here is front-loaded in time value as well as intrinsic.

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💡 What Should You Actually Do?

🎰 YOLO Trader — Think Before You Chase

The confirmed BTO makes this a legitimate bullish signal — a desk opened a new $41M long position in NVDA deep-ITM calls on the day Vera Rubin was confirmed in production, targeting the Aug 26 earnings binary. That is real institutional conviction, and it is directionally unambiguous: BULLISH. However, you cannot replicate this trade retail without taking on the same 109-day, ≈$43-per-contract risk. Chasing deep-ITM calls at $43.30 means your breakeven is $233.30 — only ≈$9 above today's spot. If NVDA stalls in the $220–$230 gamma range, this position bleeds. Be sure you have a clear view on Aug 26 before sizing in.

📈 Swing Trader — Aug 26 is the Binary, the Confirmed BTO is Your Signal

The confirmed BTO tells you an institutional desk is positioned bullish with 109-day runway specifically to capture the Aug 26 Q2 FY27 earnings print. If you share that view, consider better-leveraged structures with defined risk:

• A near-ATM or slightly OTM call spread for a defined-risk Aug 26 earnings play (e.g., buying the $225 call and selling the $250 call for Sep 18 OPEX, getting exposure to the $225–$250 range at much lower capital outlay than the deep-ITM long)
• The gamma picture tells you to buy dips toward $220 and be cautious of chasing above $225 pre-earnings

The $600B–$690B hyperscaler capex tailwind and the Vera Rubin production confirmation are genuine fundamental catalysts — the confirmed BTO now adds institutional flow confirmation to that fundamental view.

🛡️ Premium Collector — Context Is Your Edge

The counterparty on the other side of this block cross sold (wrote) these $190 calls. If they are covered (hold NVDA stock and are writing calls for income), this is a covered-call overwrite — a yield-enhancement trade. If they are writing naked calls, they now face the same scenario the earlier short-call sellers faced: NVDA confirmed above $190 with an earnings binary ahead. The lesson from this confirmed BTO: selling deep-ITM calls on NVDA into a confirmed multi-catalyst bull cycle is a strategy with limited premium upside and unlimited downside beyond the strike. Use defined-risk structures (spreads) if you want to collect premium on NVDA in this environment. Never write naked calls into an Aug 26 earnings binary on the world's most valuable AI company.

🎓 Beginner — A Real-World Example of BTO vs BTC Resolution

Yesterday's article framed this as a "two-read" situation because the OI data at the time was ambiguous (9,500 volume vs. 80,662 prior OI = only 0.12× Vol/OI ratio). That ambiguity was real and honest.

Today's next-day OI snapshot resolved it: OI rose by +9,356 contracts. That means new contracts were opened — the BUY was buying to open, not buying to close. The prior "likely BTC" read was wrong, and the OI snapshot corrected it.

This is exactly why the come-back-tomorrow OI check exists in every article: the tape alone cannot always tell you whether a BUY is opening or closing a position. The next-day OPRA snapshot is ground truth. When you see the ⏳ "provisional" flag in any UOA article, check back after market open the following day — sometimes the signal inverts entirely, as it did here.

The corrected lesson: a ≈$41M deep-ITM call BUY on the day of a confirmed product launch, targeting the quarter's biggest earnings print, with next-day OI confirming a fresh open — that is institutional bullish conviction. Not every big BUY is closing a short. Sometimes a whale is just long.

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⚠️ Honest Risk Factors and Limits of This Analysis

What the tape and OI confirm:

• ✅ A ≈10,000-contract ($41M) block cross printed on the NVDA $190 Sep-18 call at 14:55:08 on June 1
• ✅ Next-day OI rose +9,356 contracts, confirming BTO (fresh open)
• ✅ The print was single-leg (cond 127), no multi-leg or stock+option combo flags, no cancels
• ✅ Buy-aggressor toward the ask (% across metric is consistent with lift toward offer)

What the tape cannot confirm:

• ❌ The identity of the broker, the fund, or whether they hold an equity or futures hedge alongside this long-call position
• ❌ Whether the counterparty (short-call writer) is covered (owns stock) or naked
• ❌ The specific target price or exit strategy of the BTO buyer
• ❌ Whether this is a standalone position or part of a larger multi-leg structure with legs not on OPRA (e.g., an equity hedge or a forward hedge in CME futures)

Risk disclosures specific to deep-ITM long calls (BTO):

• Time value decay is real: the $9.43 of time value in this call bleeds to zero over 109 days regardless of where NVDA trades. Even if NVDA stays at $223.87, this position loses ≈$9.43/contract by Sep 18.
• The breakeven is $233.30: NVDA must be above this level at expiry for the position to be profitable on a mark-to-expiry basis (though early exits may be profitable at lower prices if IV expands).
• Max loss is $43.30/contract ($41.1M total): deep-ITM calls can go to zero if NVDA corrects to or below $190 by Sep 18. The ≈20% bear case probability is non-trivial.
• AMD MI400 and custom ASIC structural risk: competitive AI acceleration dynamics could pressure NVDA's forward multiple over the coming years, even if the near-term fundamental picture remains strong.

Confidence level: HIGH (OI confirmed). The BTO direction is resolved. The bullish interpretation is no longer provisional.

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Here's what we know: A desk opened a new long position in ≈10,000 NVDA $190 September calls for ≈$41 million on the day Jensen Huang confirmed Vera Rubin is in full production at Microsoft Azure. The next-day OPRA OI snapshot (2026-06-02) confirmed the BTO with a +9,356-contract increase at the $190 strike. This is not a short-call cover — it is a fresh, high-conviction, capital-efficient directional bet on NVDA heading into the Aug 26 Q2 FY27 earnings binary.

At ≈0.95 delta, the desk bought synthetic exposure to ≈1,000,000 NVDA shares for $41M instead of ≈$224M in equity. The 5.5× capital multiplier captures the full upside from a blowout Q2 print (the bull case points to $250–$260) while limiting the downside to the $41M premium paid. The ≈$9.43/contract in time value is the cost of the leverage — a 4.2% carry rate for 109 days of earnings-cycle exposure.

Key dates for this position:

• 📅 August 26, 2026 after close — Q2 FY27 earnings — THE dominant binary inside this expiry. ≈23 days to Sep 18 OPEX after the print.
• 📅 September 18, 2026 — Sep OPEX, this contract expires

What OI resolution added: the earlier "two-read" framing was methodologically correct given the ambiguous Vol/OI ratio on the day. The next-day OI snapshot confirmed what the fundamental setup and the timing (same-day as the Vera Rubin production confirmation) already suggested — a desk positioned bullish into the most important NVDA catalyst of the next 3.5 months.

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Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The open/close classification on this trade is now HIGH confidence (BTO confirmed by next-day OPRA OI snapshot). Past unusual options activity does not guarantee future price movement. A $41M block cross reflects institutional-scale capital and risk tolerance that may not be applicable to retail traders. Deep-ITM long calls can lose their full premium value if the underlying falls to or below the strike at expiry. Always consider your risk tolerance, investment objectives, and consult a licensed financial advisor before trading.

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Last updated: 2026-06-02. ✅ OI RESOLVED — BTO confirmed by next-day OPRA open interest snapshot (+9,356 contracts at the $190 strike, reflecting EOD 2026-06-01). Original "likely BTC" read was an inversion; corrected here.

About NVIDIA Corporation: NVIDIA designs AI accelerators, data-center GPUs, gaming graphics processors, and automotive computing platforms. With a market cap of ≈$5.11 trillion and >90% of merchant AI training silicon, it is the world's most valuable public company and the dominant infrastructure provider for the global AI buildout.