Implied Volatility Term Structure

Hump is the forward IV across one window divided by that name’s own median window. It is a term-structure statistic, not a claim that a specific catalyst lands on that day — read the date as a date only where the window is narrow enough to name one.

“The week to Oct 30” is a window too wide to name a day. The vol is real and concentrated in that stretch, but any session inside it could be the cause, so the page declines to pick one. A single date appears only where the window is five days or fewer.

The nearest expiry is excluded from everything ranked on level. That first window has no earlier expiry to subtract from, so its forward IV is just the front contract’s at-the-money vol — and short-dated vol structurally sits above a name’s median window. On the 2026-11-02 session, 115 of the 121 windows narrow enough to name a date named the very next Friday. Publishing those as chosen dates would dress a calendar artefact as an event.

Wide quote marks a name whose at-the-money quote is wide enough that the vol is partly an artefact of the spread. Readable, but rank it below the rest. Implied vol is solved from the quote midpoint, so a wide spread inflates it and the error only ever points up — which is why the two history sections drop those names entirely rather than flagging them.

z is today’s multiple against that same ticker’s own average, in standard deviations — and it rests on 40 sessions of history beginning 2026-09-08. That is short. Treat it as a ranking of how far each name has stepped out of its own range, not as a probability, and read the session count in the table beside it. We cannot compare any of this to the same week a year or a quarter ago: the series does not go back that far, and no number on this page is measured against a seasonal baseline.

Agreement across names is the strongest thing here, and it is still only a date. Where several unrelated tickers each pin the same expiry with a narrow window, the date is observed. What happens on it is not: the page does not name a catalyst, and a window landing near an event you know about is a coincidence we have not verified.

Each ticker links to its own page, with implied move beside it for the full term structure, alongside the option chain and IV rank. Mechanics are in the implied vs historical volatility guide.