Informed Accumulation · Case Study

MCRB

2016-07-20WATCH

Lead microbiome candidate failed Phase-2.

Price, rebased to 100 at the signalChart shows raw price · −73% forward low

Before the signal After the signal Signal fired

Signal

IAS 27.0

Alert tier

WATCH

Spot at flag

$33

20-day outcome

20-day idiosyncratic −73%

Flow signature

🐜 pure aggregation. This describes the shape of the order flow — how the accumulation was assembled — not its intent and not its likely outcome.

What happened

One-sided put accumulation ahead of the SER-109 Phase-2 miss.

The catalyst: Lead microbiome candidate failed Phase-2.

The outcome: 20-day idiosyncratic −73% — a forward idiosyncratic move (beta-stripped vs SPY) over a mature 20-day window. The raw price shown on the chart reached −73%; the two differ because the outcome strips out the market’s beta.

Read this honestly

Informed, not privileged

The tape showed accumulation. It cannot prove who traded, what they knew, or why.

Direction was not predicted

IAS called that a large move was coming — magnitude, never which way. Two cases in this library resolved UP; that is the proof.

Ranked by magnitude

The edge is the magnitude estimate — P(large move) — not raw IAS. A high IAS with a low magnitude estimate is unusual but not notable for movement.

Long volatility, not long puts

These names often spike the other way first. The historical behavior looks like long volatility, not a directional put position.

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This is a historical, out-of-sample detection shown for illustration. Informed Accumulation is a research and data signal, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it does not predict the direction of any single name. AInvest Options Pilot is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Options involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.